Another Way of Thinking About It

Haviv Rettig Gur, an Israeli commentator, is a smart observer of the world Jewish community. On the spectrum of politics, he’s probably a centrist, which makes him a favorite of at least a few people I know. The paper I typically read is Ha’aretz, a predictably leftist take on Israeli politics. Rettig Gur writes for The Times of Israel, a much more moderate media outlet.

He is generally known for his pieces on Jewish identity, and the way that Israel and the world community are diverging. We are no longer the “One People” of Jewish sloganeering. He is also an analyst of the Israeli scene, writing with the advantage of his experience in the US. Rettig Gur spent ten formative years in America.

True to form he’s said some smart things about Iran. The piece I have in mind appeared widely last week. In it, he argues that we are all mistaken. The current conflict has little to do with Israel, and our preoccupation with influence is a distraction from other issues. I have argued that Rubio was likely right, that Benjamin Netanyahu forced our hand. Trump said publicly that was not the case, that he “probably” pushed the Israelis into war, and the time was right for both parties to attack. Rettig Gur argues forcefully that neither party did much forcing and the real target here was the threat of China, which has positioned itself as the patron of Iran.

You can read Rettig Gur’s analysis all over the internet. It has to do with the flow of oil across the planet and China’s recent success as a purveyor of infrastructure. In this model, Iran “works” as a Western outpost of Chinese force, and it also acts as a shiny distraction for America. Regardless of the smoke in the suburbs of Tehran, America’s assault against Iran was directed against China. Rettig Gur’s point is that we are not seeing the whole and that people like me are too quick to judgment.

It also makes sense of this period of incoherence in which the administration cannot (?) articulate a reason for its assault. It gave no thought at all to evacuating our nationals and rushed into war without a plan for the day after. I think Rettig Gur would say that our toy-soldier president simply got too excited, hustling us into war hoping to strike a blow against China, perhaps the only great power that matters to America. It’s not that there is no rhyme or reason for this war, but that America would prefer not to name its real opponent.

I am not high enough on the food chain to judge Rettig Gur’s analysis, but it feels like it carries both wisdom and experience. Netanyahu remains a wily vassal, but he is not likely the main piece on this international chessboard. In the war against Iran, it’s America first, supported by the military prowess of the State of Israel.