Like a Phoenix
If you look hard enough in the great pile of his presidency, there might be something that you find attractive about Trump. For me it has been an aversion to warmaking. It’s not exactly a form of pacificism. Trump’s natural default is bellicose threats, a promise to deploy his considerable bulk to crush whatever opposition he encounters. Real pacifism goes with at least a shred of humility and a willingness to sit when you are inclined to stand. Think about Gandhi spinning quietly at his wheel.
Trump couldn’t do that to save his life. This is the man who humiliated Zelensky for the pure pleasure of humiliating Zelensky. He did the same with the Prime Minister of Canada, who managed elegantly to do some humiliating of his own. It helps to have English as your native language. But even when boasting (or berating or bellowing), Trump occasionally chokes out his aversion to war. However ridiculous his promises about Russia and Ukraine, what passes for his heart was in the right place. War is not good for children and other living things.
Now, of course, we are up to our necks in it. This weekend’s deployment of men and material places the country at the nuclear core of conflict. We have crossed the border between support and engagement. I do not think that a de-nuclearized Iran is a bad thing for the cause of humanity and civilization. I just wish it had come out of laborious negotiations, the ones that began with Obama and ended with Trump, who never understands the relationship between cause and effect.
The big “winner” in all of this is Benjamin Netanyahu. Is there anyone who couldn’t see that coming to the station? It’s one of the great political comeback stories of our time. He’s spent months in the dog house of the Trump administration. Trump, himself, seemed to click the switch. After promising to turn Gaza into the Club Med of Greater Israel, Trump seemed to tire of Netanyahu’s independence. He negotiated for hostages without the Israelis. He came to the Middle East and didn’t stop by for coffee. People who hate Netanyahu exploded with schadenfreud.
But all of that is now gone with the centrifuges of Mordor. The way I see it, Netanyahu moved forward just far enough to soften the targets and then turned to Trump with an offer to make history. Whatever Trump’s defaults and natural aversions, he put aside his scruples to preen and strut: “We now control the skies over Iran.” It may have been factually inaccurate, but psychologically real. It was a baby step from that to sending the B-2s from Missouri.
What happens next is an open question. Israel may yet—God forbid—be surprised by retaliation. Iranian resistance doesn’t have a bottom, regardless of the loss of troops or civilians. That was proven in the war between Iran and Iraq until an unexpected stalemate. But Netanyahu has just erased the shame of October 7, at least when it comes to the somnolence of his government. Like a phoenix, he has been transfigured by fortune.
And like it or not, the world has once again turned. Netanyahu is likely vibrating with possibility, more ready than ever to operate without constraint.